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The historic Ashes series could provide a reason to cheer, but this series will also witness the Aussie side host more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day prior to the team was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Ageing Squad Fascination Grows

For two or three years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this team and especially the bowling unit. It is unusual to have nearly all player in a Test side being above thirty, except for young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

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Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any side knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a group of similarly-timed retirements, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would indeed be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, suddenly, change is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the space of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only sit out the opening match, was the team management assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a far greater shift with two key bowlers missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the side. Boland handling the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Tests entering the attack after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories portray him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what new injuries the opening match may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of getting injured early in series and a pattern of initially small injuries turning into extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the series may see the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much earlier than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is not the place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that change approaching, coming around the corner, and England hasn't seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.