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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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