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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.