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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd